Monday Musings – New Quarter Not So Shiny
I played poker this weekend.
I entered a few tournaments in Atlantic City, made it to a couple of final tables but didn’t win any. It did remind me that a bluff can only get you so far – at a certain point, you have to actually have the cards in order to win. As I pointed out to Members this morning – the Global Markets have bluffed their way through the first quarter and now comes earnings season and it’s time for the economy to show it’s cards and now we’ll see who ends up with all the chips!
Just this morning we got this disturbing data:
- Eurozone unemployment ticked up to 10.8% in February, compared with 10.7% in January and 10.0% in the year-earlier period.
- Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI 47.7 in March (confirming preliminary estimate) vs. 49 in February. That’s the 8th consecutive month of readings below 50, which signals contraction.
- German PMI fell to 48.4 in March from 50.2 in February, slightly beating estimates for 48.1 but still well within the range indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector.
- France March PMI slides to 46.7 from 50.0 previously and the flash estimate of 47.6. The read is the lowest since June 2009, led by a sharp decline in New Orders.
- U.K. February PMI rises to 52.1 from 51.5 previously and beating expectations of 50.7. The devil, however, is in the details: “The increase in output was heavily supported by a depletion in backlogs of work and record inventory building,” note CIPS, the survey firm
- Spain’s March PMI falls to 44.5 from 45.0 previously, inline with expectations. It’s the 11th consecutive decline in the index.
- HSBC China PMI, which measures smaller factories, 48.3 in March (flash reading was 48.1) vs. February’s 49.6, marking the fifth successive month of contraction.
- South Korean Exprts Fall 1.4% on Weakness in Global Demand.
These are NOT cards you want to be playing with unless you are forced. That’s the thing, GS, JPM, MS, Fund Managers, etc – they HAVE to play. Since they have to play whatever cards that are dealt – they do the logical thing – THEY BLUFF! Although what’s scary about the Banksters is that, when they bluff, it’s like the dealer bluffing because they control so much of the game and their only real goal is to get you to play so they can rake…
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