Random Thoughts: What If I Missed The 100% Rally In The S&P 500?
Todd Harrison: We’re an interactive global community with Minyans in some 229 countries and territories. Those individuals—you, really—have always been core to our mission of effecting positive change through financial understanding.
Yesterday, I received the following email for an Old School Minyan and I assume he’s not the only person struggling with this question. I share our exchange (with his permission) for the benefit of the entire Minyanville family:
So, what’s been keeping me up at night? We agree that the headwinds from what will have to happen vis-a-vis the ‘debt super-cycle’ Maudlin explains so well in his book/posts as well as you on MV is the “other side of the storm.” But what if it comes and the market yawns? To my credit I flipped out of condos in NYC and Miami in 2005 for a large gain seeing the R/E bubble and was all in cash in 2008. To my bad, failed to realize what the Fed can do and missed the bulk of the “easy double” off of 666. $%^&!
As I bide my time expecting the “second shoe to drop”—what if it does and there is—like the old adage of the tree in the forest—no one there to hear/care? What if it’s already baked in? And thus, the new great secular bull with all the great wealth formation that would ensue after such events/slates wiped clean— starts not from S/P 700 [again] but 1400?
In other words, what if we don’t have the “luxury” of going “all in” with our cash stash at once-again depressed levels, but being forced to do so at a much higher level? Can I do that? Will I be able to recognize that? Can I swallow my pride and buy in at levels twice as high when I failed to before in a meaningful way? Mind you not now– [i think...] but whenever? Making things worse is the other great adage–when the last bear turns bullish… Yikes…
Was wondering if you had the same nagging feeling?
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