Random Thoughts: Waiting To Exhale
Todd Harrison: Yesterday afternoon, I had a discussion with Michael “Blue Steel Jr.” Sedacca about the current state of our financial fate, as we do each and every day, and I told him that my sense was that we’re approaching a major reversal and/or gut check—and yes, I realize I’m likely a bit early.
Here’s the twist—while I wanted to buy index puts into yesterday’s close, I didn’t pull the trigger as the price action was too pristine and our S&P price target remains 3% away. Still, between the VXO meandering in the mid-teens and the frenzy over the Facebook IPO, it feels like we’re getting close to a tradable cusp.
As shared on the Buzz & Banter, I’ve operated from the long side thus far this year (some of the stocks I’ve trafficked in are too thin to discuss in real-time) but flattened my trading pad heading into yesterday’s close. While my posture is balanced and two-sided, the capitulation of the bear camp is worthy of a nose-scrunch; this is seemingly the mirror image of the December 2011 fret, when the smartest guys in the room screamed “Get Out of the Market!”
Please position yourself accordingly; step by step, we’ll find our way.
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