Tuesday Tokyo Take-Down Trepidation (UUP, FXY, SPY)
I think I’ve seen this movie before.
Phil Davis: Or, more accurately, I’ve seen myself on TV before predicting intervention by the Bank of Japan as the Dollar (NYSEARCA:UUP) fell to these lows (131 to the Dollar) against the Yen (NYSEARCA:FXY), to the point where it began to impact the earnings of Japanese export corporations and forced Japan’s Central Bank to take action to boost the Dollar and weaken the Yen, which has the unfortunate side effect of tanking the markets.
They did this on August 4th (link above) when I predicted the 20% correction on the button (down to 1,100) and again on October 29th, when we cashed out our White Christmas Portfolio after catching the run from 1,100 all the way back to 1,292 (17.5%) and once again nailed the Yentervention, that came just 2 days later and sent the markets plunging back to 1,158 into the Holiday.
Since Thanksgiving, we have gone all the way back to 1,333 – and that’s 15% up from pre-Thanksgiving and 24% up from the October low at 1,074 and almost exactly 100% up from the S&P low of March, 2009 at 666.79. 666, as we know, is the mark of the Blankfein, so we take our numerology seriously at PSW – hallowed be Lloyd’s name!
Anyway, so we’re up 24%, which is a bit much without a significant correction and let’s say 1,100 is the proper base and 20% up from there is 1,320 and you can see from Dave Fry’s SPY chart (NYSEARCA:SPY) that we’re into a serious zone of resistance here with a very toppy-looking MACD and RSI accompanying this quadruple-top.
Yesterday we discussed some of the Global Macro forces at play but this morning we only have to look at Toshiba and Honda’s quarterly reports, with both companies down around 70% in profits and issuing poor guidance based, in large part, on the too-strong Yen – to get a pretty good idea of the pressure the BOJ is currently under to take some sort of action right away.
JFE Holdings, Japan’s second-largest steelmaker posted their first loss EVER – also on Yen strength and their outlook for next year is break-even. Demand for steel is slowing in Asia and Japanese Steel is far more expensive than competing, weaker currency-based manufacturers.
Last week, Japan had it’s…
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