Random Thoughts: Why This Time IS Different
Todd Harrison: I was standing on a street divider this morning, waiting for a break in the traffic as I made my way to Minyanville headquarters after my workout, next to an older lady whom I’ve never met. After a minute or so of awkward silence, I turned to her and said, “Who would have ever thought that WE would be stranded on an island together?” We shared a smile and some laughter, which was my intent; in today’s day and age, a little levity goes a long way.
Why do I bring this up? For starters, it was the first thing that came to mind as I sat down to scribe my vibe on the global financial markets. After more than a decade of writing—and twice that trading—my systematic routine has almost become second nature, and therein lies the risk. While I’m a SIZE seller of “this time is different,” I think we can agree we’re in uncharted territory as far as our financial landscape is concerned.
There are only so many times I can reference the article we wrote in December 2011 that pointed toward S&P 1360 (which, at the time, was pretty much unthinkable). You know—or I hope you know—the binary (and cumulative) risk that dominates our new-found reality. We’ve been all over Europe for two years, long before policymakers saturated our patience by changing the rules of engagement, and potentially the foundation of capitalism.
Sure, there’s a lot going on—but when you write about it all day, every day, it’s difficult to maintain a fresh and engaging voice. That’s why I like to mix it up, thread pop culture references throughout the prose, and add as much “PG-13″ humor as possible without detracting from the credibility of the content. And yes, sometimes I vent — it happens to the best of us, at least those of us who aren’t black boxes.
Someone once told me never to chase “paper dragons”; it was their way of saying that I should focus on known tangibles and leave amorphous speculation to others. I find that particularly interesting as it relates to our current challenge of discounting future probabilities of events that may or may not have been invented yet, whose outcomes are so disparate that it’s almost impossible to make an educated decision.
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