Higher Retails Sales Inspire Cautious Optimism

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The September surge in retail sales slowed in October, but there’s still no sign of recession in U.S. consumer spending. Total retail spending rose 0.5% last month on a seasonally adjusted basis. That’s a substantial deceleration from September’s 1.1% pop. But ignoring September’s unusual and unsustainable gain, October retail sales continue growing at a respectable clip. You can’t read too much into any one data point (or data series), but if you’re looking for clear-and-present signs of trouble for the business cycle you won’t find it here, at least not today.