Courtesy of David in The Crosshairs Trader
“Seeing what you want to see means you miss what you should see.” CHT
Let’s not miss the obvious because we adhere to a belief system that blinds us to reality.
If we hold to the belief that the market should sell off (for whatever reason) yet it continues to power ahead in the opposite direction then our steadfast “belief” has done us a disservice. Holding to a belief when the evidence clearly proves the belief to be incorrect is neither virtuous nor beneficial in the long run.
Just think, if reality is based purely on belief then there would be no Christopher Columbus and a round earth. We would still believe the Spanish church leaders and their biblically based interpretation (=belief) of a flat earth. I know that sounds ridiculous but it proves my point. Believing the earth is flat when it is clearly round is much like holding a bearish market view when the market is clearly bullish (or vice versa).
As traders we should be careful not to adhere to a particular belief lest we become blinded to reality. Unless we have enough money to move the markets we best serve our own interests by trading the market “as is” not “as it should be”.
Could the market eventually prove a long held “rational” belief to be correct? Sure. But remember the markets can stay irrationally flat for much longer than we can stay rationally round.
Just me thinking…for what it is worth.
Pic credit: A 1922 illustration from the Swedish and Norwegian magazine Allers Familj-Journal. Photograph: Alamy, The Earth is flat? What planet is he on?, The Guardian